Strait of Hormuz blockade disrupts global trade as U.S. seeks NATO support

# He Promised Gas Below $2 and No New Wars. One of Those Is Still Technically Possible.

*The Fine Print on 'No New Wars'*

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In October 2025, Donald Trump told a Fox News audience that gasoline would fall ["below two dollars"](https://www.foxnews.com) under his watch. A month later, on the campaign trail, he framed his foreign policy vision simply: ["I'm not going to start a war, I'll stop wars."](https://www.thehindu.com) Both statements are now in uncomfortable company with the events of early 2026.

On February 28, 2026, the United States launched **Operation Epic Fury** against Iran. The resulting conflict has produced one of the most consequential disruptions to global energy markets in recent memory — a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow waterway through which, [according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration](https://www.eia.gov), roughly 20% of the world's oil supply passes on any given day. Gas prices in the United States have surged. Trump, by his own reported admission, was aware the war would push oil prices higher.

The gap between those two data points — the promise and the outcome — does not require editorial comment. It mostly speaks for itself.

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## What Is Confirmed

**The blockade is real and its effects are spreading.** [NPR reports](https://www.npr.org/2026/03/17/g-s1-114032/up-first-newsletter-iran-israel-lebanon-us-war-cuba-power-outage-rfk-vaccine-protected-status-migrants) that the Strait of Hormuz closure is actively disrupting global oil shipments, with ripple effects moving through supply chains well beyond the immediate conflict zone.

**U.S. port infrastructure is already feeling the strain.** The chief of the Port of Los Angeles — one of the busiest cargo hubs in the Western Hemisphere — has spoken publicly about how the Iran war is [impacting global trade flows](https://www.pbs.org/newshour/show/la-port-chief-on-how-the-iran-war-is-impacting-global-trade), adding pressure to shipping routes that were still recovering from earlier supply chain disruptions.

**Asian nations are moving to conserve fuel.** [BBC News reports](https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/crm8g938erdo) that Sri Lanka has already begun implementing fuel conservation measures in response to supply uncertainty — a signal that the economic shockwave is reaching countries far outside the immediate theater of conflict.

**Trump has formally requested NATO support.** According to [BBC reporting](https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c70k29914q4o), President Trump has called on NATO allies to deploy naval vessels to help reopen the strait. The response from European governments has ranged from cautious to resistant — a dynamic that echoes earlier friction over burden-sharing within the alliance.

**The broader conflict involves multiple fronts.** [BBC coverage](https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cj6dl175w01o) indicates the war's scope extends to Iran-Israel and Lebanon dimensions, complicating any straightforward diplomatic off-ramp. A separate [BBC report](https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c8r17plnvy3o) outlines the cascading geopolitical pressures now pressing on allied governments to take a position.

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## What Is Claimed, Not Confirmed

*The following points are drawn from reporting but have not been independently verified by Epoch Reckoning at time of publication.*

- **That Trump explicitly acknowledged oil prices would rise** before authorizing Operation Epic Fury. This claim has circulated in coverage but the precise sourcing of that admission has not been fully documented in materials available to us. - **The full scope of NATO's internal deliberations** on the naval request. European resistance has been reported, but the specifics of which governments have said what, and in what formal contexts, remain fluid. - **Whether the blockade is Iranian state policy or a consequence of degraded naval control** in the strait. The distinction matters for how long it lasts and how it ends.

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## The Arithmetic

The promise was simple: cheaper gas, no new wars. The current situation involves a U.S.-initiated military operation, a closed chokepoint for a fifth of the world's oil, surging domestic gas prices, and an alliance under strain. Whether Operation Epic Fury ultimately serves American strategic interests is a legitimate and open debate. Whether it matches the specific commitments made on the campaign trail is, at this point, mostly a math problem.

Gas below two dollars remains technically possible. Wars, once started, are harder to un-start.

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## What to Watch

- **NATO's formal response** to Trump's naval deployment request — which allies commit, which decline, and how publicly. - **U.S. gas price trajectory** over the next 30 days as the blockade's duration becomes clearer. - **Sri Lanka and other Asian economies** as leading indicators of how hard the supply shock hits import-dependent nations. - **Any diplomatic back-channel activity** between Washington and Tehran, or through intermediaries, that could signal movement toward a negotiated reopening of the strait. - **Congressional reaction** — particularly from Republicans who ran on the same economic promises — to the divergence between campaign messaging and current pump prices.

--- *Epoch Reckoning publishes verified analysis of how current events compare to on-the-record commitments. Unconfirmed claims are labeled as such. If you have sourced corrections or additions, contact us.*